October 1st
The beginning of October usually marks nothing particular. It’s just another month, with three months left in the semester. Possibly the wiccans get all excited because Halloween is approaching and they think it’s some kind of witch festival (Samhein was originally a harvest festival), but for the most part October is nothing.
For me, though, October 1st marked the end of a bet: “”As to the deal. Let’s just lay the ground floor down, I thought about it last night and realized that I don’t want any wiggle room plus there’s a little bit of unfairness in it. As I understand it the bet, or whatever, hinges on the United States going to war with Iran by the end of September. If they do, then I lost and have to admit that the President knew about and personally controlled the gun running operation known as “Fast and Furious” in Mexico. If you lose, you stop emailing me about it? No, that’s not fair, if you lose then you have to admit that you were wrong in an email to me about this whole conspiracy web that somehow links the gun operation to the president (I won’t repost the email but I will paraphrase it for my blog).”
One of the biggest problems with arguing with pseudo-science conspiracy theorists is that they are notoriously difficult to pin down. Each conspiracy theory is almost entirely unique they have a shared genera but individuals tend to spout their own specific theories. It’s really a case of “one-upmanship” they can’t tolerate being second place, so they add their own twist and then let the smugness and pretension flow from within. The other aspect of their slipperiness is that no single event ever happens on their own, it’s all interrelated. Which is evidenced by the fact that this person “Nick” seemed to somehow tie together the failed ATF operation with a looming war between the US and Iran. I had to be specific, ultra specific.
One of the defining aspects of the conspiracy set (as well as the pseudo science, and mysticism–basically anything you find in the “New Age” category at the book store) is that it’s un-recreatable. It’s an important aspect to History, Science, anything. Two people ought to be able to look at the information and draw the same conclusion. Right now several labs with the capabilities are retesting the CERN faster than light results. It’s the process that is important. Without the screaming or the rolling of the eyes, no two piles of “facts” put forth from a conspiracist generate the same conclusion. I backed “Nick” into a corner because not only did I know he was wrong, but also that he needed to see it as well. Forcing a prediction out of the supposed “facts” of his conspiracy would level the playing field. Objective evidence doesn’t work, it cannot. They simply deny it. I had an email exchange that directed me to explain the collapse of the WTC Towers without referring to the internal collapse of the floors creating a piledriving effect, more commonly known as “pancaking.” This would be like arguing with a Creationist who wants you to explain why there are no transition fossils but won’t let you present the Archaeopteryx, Velociraptor, or Homo Erectus.
If, as he claimed, I was the naive fool for not seeing it, than it ought to be predictive. It’s fact not theory (using the non-scientific uses of the words). However these facts are unique. They not only explain historical events but show that there is a guiding hand with a clear purpose. The conspiracists all claim to know the purpose so they should see what is happening next. Which is why I forced the prediction.
Thus October 1st has come and gone, no war with Iran. Not even a drone strike. Nothing. I’m still waiting for the email, but I doubt it will come.









